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this post was submitted on 29 Feb 2024
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So according to you, all the male individuals Israel killed in this war of fighting age are Hamas fighters? That's very convenient to believe but it is far from the reality.
In Gaza, before the 7th of October the Hamas military division was supposed to have 30K fighters. Israel has been proven to use unguided munitions and a lot more powerful bombs than they should.
Even considering that all of their targets were legitimate, which I am pretty sure wasn't the case claiming that they killed 10K is extremely presumptuous.
If you accept the Hamas claim that
but you also think that Israel is getting its 2:1 value by counting corpses rather than by just making it up, that would imply that they're counting all dead men (and 5% of dead women and children) as Hamas fighters.
However, given that approximately half of the population of Gaza is under 18, 70% would imply that over 93% of Palestinian casualties are civilians (based on the assumption that adult men make up 100% of Hamas fighters but only 25% of the civilian population). That's 14 civilians killed for every fighter, more than twice as bad as the Russian siege of Mariupol. I don't believe this because (1) it doesn't correspond to the level of destruction we're seeing, (2) I think Biden would act very differently if it were true, and (3) Hamas has a great deal of motivation to lie.
If Israel were killing literally everyone, women and children would be 75% of the dead. This is what Hamas is saying when they say "more than 70%". I think it's absolutely ridiculous but it's what some people apparently believe and what the Western media reports uncritically.
Note that if if we accept the 2:1 casualty ratio Israel claims but believe they're counting dead Hamas fighters completely accurately, that would mean 50% of casualties would be women and children and 17% of the casualties would be civilian men. If we think Israel is also exaggerating, then 7500 Hamas fighters killed, a 3:1 casualty ratio (pretty bad but not necessarily unjustifiable) would mean 56% of the casualties would be women and children and 19% would be civilian men. So I think the true fraction of women and children among the dead is somewhere between 50% and 56%.