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this post was submitted on 03 Mar 2024
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China would win. China is supplying Russia but China is not an ally of Russia. China would stop Russia the moment it's no longer beneficial, which would be when NATO and Russia start fighting. China doesn't care who wins, they win either way. If Russia loses China can take eastern Russia. If NATO loses, China can take Taiwan. If both wipe each other out China becomes the sole superpower.
Firstly, Pretty sure Russia's nuclear weapons work just as well against China as they do against the West. Barring a complete collapse of Russia, China isn't going to be taking vast swaths of Siberia, even if they wanted. They can take some already disputed territory (in fact the already have) because of Russia's current weakness. But that's about it.
Secondly, it's no exaggeration that a conventional war between NATO and Russia would be over quickly. Ukraine with just a small percentage of NATO's air power could defeat Russia. With Russia in the weakened state it's in right now, it's likely just Poland alone could defeat Russia. The Full force of NATO? They'd be done in less than a week. But that's only if Russia doesn't use nukes. In which case see the previous, but then ask why would China want to invade a nuclear wasteland? Probably just be hunkering down and dealing with the fallout.
Thirdly China doesn't currently have the capability to take and hold Taiwan. Likely fail even to invade. If they tried that now it would go about as well as Russia's attempt to invade Ukraine. Who knows, maybe Xi is as dumb as Putin, but I don't think so.
Maybe in 10 years China might have the capability to make a move on Taiwan, but it's likely the whole Putin situation will be resolved long before then.
I don't know for certain what China would do but I very much doubt China wouldn't try to benefit from a war between NATO and Russia. I also think you're also severely underestimating how big Russia is. NATO could maybe take Moscow in a week, that's only about 600 km from the Baltic states (which would be the closest point for NATO). But Russia has a lot of land to fall back to. From Moscow onward (just going east, but to keep in mind NATO would also need to go south) you'd have to take Novgorod, Samara, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk (and then Russia still has more land to fall back to but let's just say Novosibirsk would be the final stand). Now we're no longer talking about ~600km, now we're talking about 4000km. We're talking about the equivalent of taking the whole of United States. In a week? Yeah, that's not happening.
It would be a long and tiresome war and would give plenty of time for China to come up with ways to benefit from it.
I think you're underestimating how effective air power is. As bravely as the Ukrainian Air Force has been using what they have against Russia, it's a very tiny fraction of what NATO has. And yeah Russia has a lot of land, but none of it is outside of the range of NATO air power. This isn't the Napoleonic wars, Russia can fall back from ground offensives all they want but they'd be hit from the air while they're making strategic retreats.They didn't really have the accuracy needed to target individual tanks for the air (despite claims to the contrary) in WWII. NATO can do that now. They didn't have mid air refueling in WWII, but that's something NATO does have. So the range is effectively unlimited, they'd have tanks being destroyed during their their retreat and would have no way to replace them.
Yeah that indeed isn't happening because there's an insane number of air superiority fighters that would prevent anyone from getting close. An attempt for anyone to try to gain air superiority over the US would be over in minutes. NATO gaining air superiority over Russia would take longer than that because Russia would have ground based air defenses to deal with, but it wouldn't take that long.
As with all wars in modern times, the long and tiresome part would be the occupation, not the invasion. Well all wars except the failed Russian invasion of Ukraine. But in the the event of a hypothetical war between NATO and Russia, Ukraine would be behind NATO while the Russia (the country that failed to accomplish the easy part of an invasion) would be in front of NATO.
And yeah China would find ways to benefit, as all nations look for ways to benefit from any situation. If it came down to it (though hard to see it happening because nukes exist) most likely outcome would be the Russian Federation being broken up. There are many groups that aren't happy about being ruled over by Moscow and granting them independence means less area to occupy. China would do shenanigans to get puppets installed in the newly formed countries close to them. In fact if there were a conventional war between NATO and Russia, it's likely China would side with NATO so they could invade from the east while NATO invades from the west. Then they'd be in a good position to set up puppet governments post war. Because there is zero question who would win.
But since nuclear weapons do exist, none of this will happen.
I'd better get back to studying Mandarin.