this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2024
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I'm just waiting for windows 12. If reports are to be believed, it's going to be a subscription cloud OS, probably with a thin client. If they really go through with that, then I can imagine linux gaining some ground in 2026 when windows 11 hits EOL.
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Windows 11 EOL in 2 years?
Quite possibly.
Windows 8 reached end of support in only 4 years.
Particularly if Microsoft thinks they can get away with "Operating System as a subscription" as part of "Windows 12", then they may well be very aggressive about retiring Windows 11. The software companies are falling all over themselves to force people to pay monthly in perpetuity.
However, I'm thinking that Microsoft sees Windows as their gateway drug, so I don't think they'd risk making the base platform subscription. They want people to still get "free" OS that nags them with "hey, give us money for backup storage, and you want office, right, and oh you are a powershell user I see? Then you'll just love renting an Azure instance so we'll advertise that as part of launching a powershell prompt?" They'll of course continue the milk the OEMs for license fees offset by bloated "sampleware", and still ostensibly charge for it to drive the perception of value, but broadly Windows is more a launching board for steering people toward Microsoft subscription services.
If they did throw the switch on "subscription for OS", then they'd risk people just getting ChromeBooks which will steer the users instead toward Google Docs and Google Drive and all the other services Microsoft expressly doesn't want users to get into.
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/lifecycle/products/windows-11-home-and-pro
windows 12 maybe this year, maybe next
I doubt Microsoft is that dumb, though.
Don't think of it like that. Think of it like, "next quarter's profits".
It takes a lot of effort for non-technical people to switch to a new OS. Microsoft can capitalize on that to rake in egregious profits for probably five years or more before businesses finish sincere efforts at supporting Linux.
Yeah, probably they aren't, but who knows. Unity thought they were infallible and went for their "pay the installation fee or else" that gave power to engines like Godot.
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