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this post was submitted on 14 Mar 2024
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The answer is never, so it's time to start organizing now. Labor unions are on the rise for the first time in a century, and historically are an incredibly strong voting bloc. Coordination between them could lead to a proper leftist party, split from the Dems.
Splitting the left would result in a permanent Republican majority.
That presupposes the Republican party survives. They've put a lot of capital into Trump, and if he loses this November there's a good chance he's just dead before he gets a chance to run again. None of the other claimants to the throne are anywhere near as popular amongst the cult.
Nobody is suggesting we get a leftist party together for November. That's just not possible, and getting a president would be meaningless. Organize for midterms, start getting house and congress seats. Work with the Dems while the Republican threat remains, but prepare for when their movement collapses to infighting
That's true. I think there is a reasonable chance that the right-wing could split or collapse.
There is an interesting parallel here with Canada, which also has a FPTP system. Canada is more progressive than the US, so it already has two left-wing parties (one more centre-left than the other). But, for about a decade in the 90s, the right wing party split in two and this guaranteed electoral success for the centre-left Liberal Party. The interesting thing is that this was actually bad for the Liberal Party. They became arrogant, internally fractious, and scandal-prone. When the two right-wing parties re-merged, the Liberals suffered their worst defeat in history.
If the Republicans in the US split into two right-wing parties, there might be room for two left-wing parties as well. In fact, it would be good if a left-wing split ensured that the Dems weren't guaranteed electoral success, as this would lead them into making stupid mistakes. However, if the right-wing later re-united, the left would have to be prepared to reunite again as well. The problem is that the US is more right-wing than Canada, so vote-splitting on the left is more of a worry.
All of that said, it would be interesting to see how much support a left-wing working class party would have. I recall that there were midwest working class voters who were prevaricating between Trump and Bernie, not between Trump and Hillary/Biden. They didn't care about left vs. right politics as much as they wanted to vote for someone who would bring good working class jobs back to the Rust Belt. A left-wing party that really focused on bread and butter working class issues and not culture war bullshit might do well, but it's too risky when Trump is the alternative.
If moderates can't get over their unwillingness to compromise with progressives and leftists the split is guaranteed.