I don't have to imagine it, such frameworks for gamblers occur all the time; from people I've known personally with "a system" for winning roulette to those who consistently made money buying bitcoins or NFTs etc. Usually these things crumple early enough to not cause too much damage, other times the "has always worked before" heuristic leads people to bet their life savings based on very false assumptions.

The US-contrarianism framework may work for most revolutionary groups but if you do not consider the specific conditions of each will also lead you to supporting ISIS or opposing vaccines.