Occam's Razor is lazy. The simple explanation is that he had a standard paddle boarding accident. The incident rate for those accidents is significantly low. This complicates the use of Occam's Razor. The person was well connected, in a very well connected space. They had access to better equipment, better waters, more safety equipment, better emergency services, etc, etc, etc. This complicates Occam's Razor. The person was very close to powerful people in a long and continuous history of murders of convenience. This complicates Occam's Razor.