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this post was submitted on 11 Apr 2024
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@Pixelemme @saltesc Zhou. But I don't think SAI will go to Sauber to be in a shit car. He saw what happened to ALO going to McLaren when Honda came back and won't want to waste his prime years toddling around in the lower midfield.
Here's a pretty reasonable driver lineup for 2025 with quite a few rookies:
RBR: VER, PER
MER: RUS, SAI
FER: LEC, HAM
AMR: ALO, STR
MCL: NOR, PIA
SAU: HUL, Pourchaire
HAAS: BOT, Bearman
WIL: ALB, Antonelli
RB: TSU, Lawson
ALP: OCO, GAS
SAI in Mercedes will be a longshot. Even if it is then it'll be a one year deal atmost. Everyone is harping on Antonelli. SAI would also want to be the no 1 driver. Merc will have Russell as no 1. Maybe Merc and SAI will agree on terms if there is nothing else available for either.
Why would Sainz go to Merc and not RBR? Perez is not locked into RBR, I'm sure they would've dropped him last year if there was a promising replacement available. This year Sainz is available and he came up in the RB academy and he's a better driver than Perez. RBR is guaranteed to make him an offer to replace Perez, it simply comes down to whether he wants it or not. If I were to bet I'd bet on Sainz going to RBR.
@GoodEye8 can't see it happening, not with Perez's form right now. He's exactly what they want. RBR don't want a 1b driver in that second car. They just need someone who can consistently come second and support Verstappen. He's got his flaws, and 2023 wasn't a banner year for him, but Verstappen was in a class of his own and didn't really need the support with how dominant the car was, and he still came second in the championship. He's the best #2 driver RBR has had since Webber.
If we look at last year Perez's form was abysmal. He had the best car on the grid by a huge margin and he got on the podium only 9 times out of the 22 races. That's Lance Stroll levels of bad. This year the car isn't as strong as it was in 2023 and next year maybe they're only marginally better. Then you need a stronger second driver to exclude the possibility of repeating 2021, where Max wins the WDC but RBR lose the WCC. His only saving grace for 2024 is that so far he is showing the form he should have (assuming there really was something wrong with the car in Australia), but he needs to keep that form throughout the season and I just don't see that happening, because he's never been able to keep that form. He might be good enough for now but when the fight gets competitive he will become the weak link. RBR knows that and there's no doubt in my mind they're on the lookout to replace him before he becomes a liability.
Sainz is a clear upgrade and if Sainz is willing to be a #2 driver for RBR then RBR will go with Sainz.
@GoodEye8 I think you just made my other point with your last statement. Why would Sainz want to go to RBR to be a clear #2? Makes no sense for him at this stage of his career. If he's not #1 at RBR, best go somewhere else to try to compete for wins and a long shot at a championship. At RBR, he won't get that chance as long as Verstappen is there.
But at this stage where do you go if you want to compete for wins? The only team closest to competing with RBR is Ferrari and he's getting kicked from there. McLaren is happy with Norris and Piastri, Aston signed Alonso and are unlikely to let Stroll go (even though they should), which leaves only Merc.
Merc is in the third year of not really understanding their car and there's no reason to believe they'll do better next year. It's also very likely that Merc is planning to eventually give the seat to Antonelli. Why would Sainz go into a struggling team where he's unlikely to be competing for the wins and is likely to get kicked when the team gets good again? I think it makes more sense to go to RBR, take whatever wins you get when Max is having a bad day, keep your stock up and try to get a position in the next team that might actually fight for the championship.