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What is the next "big thing"?
(kbin.social)
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this post was submitted on 22 Apr 2024
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"The internet has reached the peak of its usability and will never progress much past it's current level"
This is you in 1997.
I'm not saying AI can't be disruptive. I'm saying we aren't there. The steady progress you think you are seeing is bought with increased processing power, the science isn't advancing steadily, it advances in unpredictable jumps. Because the performance gained with processing power is reaching its peak, we'll need at least another one of those unpredictable jumps for it to get to a state that will do what the comment I was responding to was claiming. It could be another 50 years before that happens, or it could be tomorrow.
Was there actually a statistical argument for that? IIRC the main argument was most people wouldn't have a use for it, in the guy's opinion.
There's stats for this. It's not certain, but "we're nearly at peak LLM" has become a reasonable guess in the last few months.