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this post was submitted on 25 Apr 2024
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Alright, while on a moral level this offer would be definitely the right thing to accept (ASSUMING complete good faith), it could be much, MUCH worse. Hamas has shown a willingness and ability to commit to large-scale attacks on Israel - considering the long, long history of antisemitic and genocidal rhetoric Hamas officials have engaged in, "Five years of not disrupting an enemy's plans and organization" is a five-year recipe for an even-better coordinated and funded attack.
Follow the North Ireland model independent verification of compliance (on both sides).
The Hamas guy in the OP is literally talking about how they would lay down arms and become a party. IRA to Sinn Fein.
(Will there be splinter hardliners? Sure! There is a civil war at the end of Independence. But there is a promise of peace after the civil war.)
Yes, like I said, assuming complete good faith. But even then, laying down their arms wouldn't mean that fighters for their cause would no longer exist; it would simply mean that a better-organized Palestinian military would take its place.
My point isn't "Five year truce bad", it's "Five year truce good but there ARE reasons to not accept it even from an abstract standpoint"
A better organized Palestinian military is a natural consequence of independence. And ideally yes, the best trained Hamas fighters will be joining it and be under government control, fighting against the hardliner splinters to enforce the hypothetical Independence Peace agreement, rather than being the hardliner splinters.
The road to peace will be very very messy. It is the bed Israel made and has to sleep on. The time when a relatively clean, peaceful transition to 2SS could have happened was right after Oslo. But here we are and it's either a super messy transition to 2SS that will require nerves of steel to not intervene in the civil war, or a super messy transition transition to a democratic post-apartheid 1SS that will also require nerves of steel and a political and cultural transformation. Or ... the ethnic cleansing, which hardliners in both Israel and Palestine dream of and we all dread.
hamas can't commit large-scale attacks on israel... Nobody can... Does anybody remember the iron fucking Dome that they have? Nobody is attacking Israel it's retarded to think that they are.