this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2024
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Everyone under 45 is standing together in not voting for Biden, so go right ahead with that I guess.
I saw that thread too, but this narrative is such cope. I want to see it as much as anyone, and we are making progress, but idk how people got from "biden's polling dropped a good few points, this will probably cost him the election" to "nobody under 45 is going to vote for biden". I still think younger people who can't be cowed into voting for biden by the time november rolls around are in the minority (though it's incredibly heartening to see that minority grow by the day.)
I don’t think you’re wrong, but a couple things to note:
1.) Given the narrow margins of victory in swing states, even a relatively small number of potential Biden voters staying home can swing the election.
2.) Do not underestimate the power of a label sticking to a president. I saw this happen to W in his second term. Of course most young people weren’t actively against the Iraq invasion and thus hated W. But eventually, this notion of “Bush lied, people died” seeped into the collective conscious of younger Americans, and any association with W became absolutely toxic. If Biden loses, it’s not from people like us who frankly weren’t going to vote for him anyway. It’s going to be from very casual voters who may have voted for Biden because they didn’t like Trump or whatever, but now that Biden is associated with actively supporting a genocide, voting for Biden feels “uncool”. And you only need that to affect a relatively small number of people to influence an election.
the point about bush is a very good one. Pretty sure some of my relatives are literally only democrats because of how deeply the "bush lied" stuff stuck. They're shitlibs, but young people who are already tending left may be radicalized rather than begrudgingly voting more liberal.