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NetworkManager makes me want to pull my hair out
(hexbear.net)
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https://linuxconfig.org/how-to-turn-on-off-ip-forwarding-in-linux
So I want and have ip forwarding, and I only want to make a firewall whitelist between two of the interfaces.
I've uninstalled iptables, nftables isn't running, NM has the firewall backend disabled, and ip forwarding is on.
This should result in traffic moving between the interfaces, yet traffic is moving between two of the interfaces, and blocked between two of the interfaces. It just doesn't make sense.
Sorry I only have this generic troubleshooting point to offer, but have you checked to see if NetworkManager might be modifying your IP routing table in unwanted ways during its operation?
From what you've described I'm under the impression that no Internet traffic needs to run through this system; perhaps NM is adding an unwanted default route?