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Forcing workers back to the office could be terrible for the environment
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this post was submitted on 06 May 2024
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At least for North America, it's really more a story about the housing crisis and fake-rural suburban sprawl than anything.
Sure, you'll get those doe-eyed types -- usually wealthy folks -- that talk about wanting to quietly live out in the countryside with no one and nothing anywhere near to them. But most people don't want to move somewhere so inconvenient, at least not if they have to actually face the disadvantages of it (like unpaved roads, no municipal sewer/water, unreliable internet/electric, long trips to highway big box stores for even the most basic necessities, etc).
When push comes to shove, most want to live in an actual town. Maybe not a huge metropolis, but a place where you have knowable neighbors, convenient shops, basic city services, restaurants and bars, and all those things. A place where you don't have to fight through a 30 minute highway commute just to get a loaf of bread.
But they can't. We have vanishingly few functional towns. Instead, we mostly have massive cities with tons of amenities but which you can't afford to live in, vast sprawling "suburbs" and "exurbs" of said cities that are completely parasitically dependent on their host city to function and aren't places in their own right, "small towns" which are just weird little growths off of an interstate offramp with no meaningful local industry of their own.
When your choice is an unaffordable metropolis, a "small town" which is nothing but national chains huddled around a place a major road crosses a highway, or the inconvenient but affordable "exurbs"/countryside, the comparison gets bad. It's all just a byproduct of our incredibly bad housing policy -- policies that favor national builders spawning whole subdevelopments out of thin air over local infill, policies that make it nearly impossible to build modest density/mixed used places, policies that care more about the financial products the housing underwrites than actually homes. Policies that rob people of choice and instead push them to all live a weird, unnatural way that violates thousands, tens of thousands of years of human development.
These advantages you see in office commutes... aren't advantages of office commutes. They're advantages of good urban living. And the idea that you wouldn't live in a city if not for a job forcing you has such intense American energy I bet it drives a lifted Ford F150 covered in bad eagle decals.
I think we would do a disservice if we only talk about this being a North American phenomenon. It is true that North America sets itself apart for the scale of the chasm but quite a lot of Europe suffers from the same problem albeit on a reduced scale. Car culture having reshaped non-city (and city) urban landscapes combined with an international and local capital class that has horded city property as a form of profiteering is sadly a story you could apply to a large swathe of cities across the planet. I do also think that those wealthy people who do fantasize about "the countryside" sadly are winning near me in the sense of moving out and demanding and lobbying for modern infrastructure.
I think, this does demonstrate a key issue with unpicking impacts on climate: accounting for how humans will adjust their behaviour in reaction to a new policy or technology (see also e.g. Jevon's Paradox). This is absolutely vital research that needs to occur but rarely does. The climate doesn't actually care about why the policy made worse impacts only that there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there would otherwise be. I do agree with you: our job is to interpret the facts and try and assess the different situations we can have as much as as we can at the system wide level and compare those to where we need to be. That will likely involve sorting out building and housing as well as measures to decrease the total amount of travel as well.