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this post was submitted on 27 May 2024
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I would think it's far more likely that a controversial law like this would trigger a Maidan-style coup, no? Or that if this law does end up frustrating EU accession talks, the population may be swayed to coup the government if they don't follow up on their promise to become an EU member?
The current ruling party is still pro-EU and aims to become a member by 2030, which follows the large support for EU membership in Georgia. I'm not sure if the "political capture of the country by western interests" is relevant here, seeing as they are already fairly west-aligned.
I guess we'll see how it plays out, but my guess would be that Georgia isn't quite where Ukraine was yet, and hence why they want to prevent that eventuality while that's still possible to do. Wanting to join EU and wanting to be sovereign are two separate concerns. Clearly, sovereignty is becoming a sharper issue than joining the EU right now. The picture that the interview I linked above paints is pretty wild, so I don't really find it surprising that they want to put an end to that. Also, the fact that EU politicians have been prancing at the rallies against the law kind of gives the game away.