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this post was submitted on 03 Jun 2024
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Weeelll, they do still export a lot even to countries that have nominally sanctioned them. Obviously less nowadays than before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but China definitely isn't their only export destination for petrochemicals:
(source for graph)
What might screw Russia over is their reliance on Chinese imports, however. Everything they need for eg. maintaining that oil production – let alone consumer products – has to come from somewhere, mostly either from dodging sanctions (making it more expensive and slower) or from China
I assume the bigger problem is the switch to a wartime economy that has no good outcome. All that production is not going toward future productivity, in fact, quite the opposite. I am no expert in this but that's my view.
Oh yes absolutely, I meant it more as in what'd be likely to make Russia a "vassal state" to China
Oh, right, missed the context.
I don't know if China can afford to cut off Russia but it looks like they control enough of that income pie that it's a very effective threat. Maybe not full control “vassal state” but it's a pretty strong position for negotiations and how's that going to get weaker over time? Then again I've heard China's economy isn't that great right now.