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Election: Poll results for small parties? (lemm.ee)
submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by shrugal@lemm.ee to c/europe@feddit.de
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In this election there won't be any % barrier in some countries, but I still haven't seen any poll numbers for small parties here in Germany for example. Everything below 2-3% gets lumped in with "Others" as usual, even though about 0.5% would already get them a seat in parliament this time. This makes voting strategically very difficult, because we have no idea whether any small party could even get in.

I get that there are limits to what you can show in a graphic, but even the source links I checked didn't provide more details. Why is that, and has anyone seen poll numbers for small parties, particularly for Germany?

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[-] Gieselbrecht@feddit.de 15 points 5 months ago

The problem is that small vote shares in a survey are not reliably measured when you consider measurement uncertainty. It makes sense to not include very low shares to avoid an unwarranted impression of accuracy.

[-] 5ymm3trY@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 5 months ago

That's the right answer. I couldn't find a poll that explicitly states it on my quick search, but if I am not mistaken I saw a poll in TV lately that showed an uncertainty of about 2-3%. It just makes no sense to list parties that are below that value.

[-] EarMaster@lemmy.world 3 points 5 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

You are correct. Most of these polls only have 1000 to 2000 participants.

this post was submitted on 04 Jun 2024
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