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this post was submitted on 28 May 2024
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It's legitimately possible the left abandons him and he picks up enough conservatives to win anyways.
Assuming we ignore his polling, sure.
Meaning what? I’ve consciously stayed away from election/polling news
It's not as bad as he is saying. Right now AZ is a write off but PA, MI, and WI are in play and are enough to get him to 270.
Meaning bad news for Biden fans.
Neither of them are popular candidates. But they are in a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Although it's going to be really awkward when Arizona sends a democratic senator while voting for Trump. (And Gallego is not a conservative.)
They've each got a hard base of unshakable supporters who are incredibly annoying and deliberately obtuse about the most obvious shit.
One thing Democrats have managed to do in hotly contested Senate races is to find people who aren't hateful assholes.
Shame they couldn't have run Mark Kelly for president.
There is not evidence that conservatives will support him
Trump has the support of party officials but actual conservative voter support is still soft. They really do prefer a Romney type. But they'll vote Trump over Bernie. A "moderate" like Biden can pull a bunch.