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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/10351845
This is the post: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldjerking/comments/1d92dkp/rate_the_political_factions_in_my_totally/
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this post was submitted on 09 Jun 2024
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I relate to this, but I keep trying to tell people that we need to get a clear diagnosis of the problem and figure out how we're going to get out of this bind.
Ultimately, Biden is currently on track to lose. He's been losing in the polls all year, and alarmingly, he's insisted that he isn't going to make changes. He's staying the course.
Those of us who want to avoid a Trump dictatorship need to find a way to change this dynamic, and I don't see any way that complaining about Biden's disaffected base fixes this. I don't think complaining about Biden fixes it either. I think he's made peace with losing. So what will?
The Democratic establishment -- the campaign managers and staff in particular -- can largely tolerate a Trump dictatorship more than the loss of status. "Leaders of the Resistance" is okay with them. "Collaborators" or "nobodies" isn't. If Jill Stein hits 15% in the polls and starts drawing major crowds, I thik this would be such a painful shock to the self-image of Democratic campaigners that I think this could dislodge the race and force Biden to reconsider his approach, and hopefully campaign for president the way he did in 2020.
If you don't want Trump, don't blame the left. They aren't the primary source of his polling collapse. That's coming from moderates who see no vision or benefit. And the Democratic party's most popular agenda items are all leftist anti-corporate stuff. So criticism is all that I see saving us from Biden's terrible judgement.
See, your premise is faulty so your conclusions - built upon this fault - are doomed.
Polling is fucked. Literally, the polling we're seeing (and saw in 2020) is worse than useless in so far as it doesn't inform the public and deliberately distorts the ground game.
If Jill Stein hits 15% in polls we've wandered into bizzarro world and all bets are off anyway.
....?
Look I don't like the old shit, I've never been a fan and would prefer bernie but this is where we're at: if you can't look at that list and admit that holy shit the old squint seems to actually have some handle on the situation you're disregarding reality.
And if you think Jill fucking Stein would do better you need to stop huffing gasoline Charlie Kelly.
Bruh.
Your arguments are totally wasted on me. I'm not saying he hasn't done good stuff. I'm saying that he's running a losing campaign, and so far has been totally unwilling to change.
Regarding polling: I don't know how to get through to you that he's losing. If you're not accepting reality, then we're fucked. Are you going to reject the election results too? It's not really even in the margin of error most weeks, he isn't even close to having the votes he needs in the states he needs to win. I can't believe we're replaying 2016 when we've already been through it. Wake up: we're on a collision course and need to change direction NOW.
Regarding his achievements: These are largely great. Which just makes it so much more painful that no one knows about them. He's never been a skilled candidate, and unfortunately getting older has not done him favors. If he had a really strong campaign, he could certainly win, but if you give a guy who isn't good at the fundamentals of running bad support and bad guidance and a muddled, poorly delivered message, we're going to wake up under President-for-life Donald Fucking Trump.
Did people forget that he was president? He won. It's like I'm in groundhog's day, and no one knows that we already ran this simulation, and the result was terrible.
We are already in bizzarro world! The leading candidate is a known fascist/rapist/felon, and the current incumbent is the most unpopular president in contemporary history.
People don't even remember that Trump was found guilty of rape last year, because it's not even newsworthy because he keeps quoting Hitler. And he is CURRENTLY IN THE LEAD.
Smash the glass and pull the alarms! All bets ARE off! This is a god-damned crisis, and repeating why BIden SHOULD be winning is pure copium. Put down the pipe and put on a pair of comfortable shoes, because saving America is going to need actual organizing work! And that starts with accepting that we have a problem.
I'm not saying that we need to make Jill Stein president, but we need something to convince Biden to either let someone else take the nomination or start running like he means it. He (and you) need the loudest possible wake-up call or mark my words: Trump WILL win.
show me some facts. show me what will override women saying "FUCK THIS" re: ROE and vote them out, like they did in the midterms. I don't think you're looking at the entire picture
remember when the polls all promised a red wave? yeah
ah yes, let's panic and run around having a last-minute candidate change lol, that'll fucking help. or they can continue to let trump be trump while he rapidly implodes.
edit: bruh shut the fuck up right quick didn't you?
You know, Bertrand Russell might say that in the present moment, you're the one who needs to demonstrate some facts, but I'll oblige.
National polls: Losing, consistently.
Key state polls: Biden is losing, in some states by shocking margins.
The midterms: The polls were dead on. A red wave was predicted by pundits who ignored the polls. This was easier to do because a lot of elections were close, and hundreds of close elections make predicting the overall breakdown in seats very hard, but the specific polls were all historically accurate. Polling the presidential outcome in key states is much less unclear. In all the most important states, he's either losing badly or it's a toss-up, favoring Trump. I don't know of any precedent for a polling error massive enough to explain polls like this without Biden being significantly behind. That could change, but it won't as long as Biden and his enablers keep denying the reality of our dire situation.
The effect of Roe: the polls already capture this. It isn't like people answer polls without factoring in Roe, and then suddenly remember it at the voting booth. Biden IS already getting the benefit of Roe, and the current terrible poll numbers are how he performs WITH this benefit. He's historically unpopular. If he were running in 2016 against a conventional candidate, he'd be getting Carter or Bush numbers. These numbers are WITH his advantages.
Here is a question for you: WHY??? Obama had a tough election because he had a brutal economy. HOW is Biden not a runaway favorite to win? Why in a time of low unemployment, following the passage of highly popular bills, against a reviled opponent is Biden even struggling? Even if you don't think he's losing (again: it's really not subjective, he's objectively losing right now), explain to me why it is even close? What story do we tell ourselves to make sense of the obvious wrongness of all of this? He is doing worse than Hillary in 2016 by a lot. I don't know how anyone can claim that this is not an absolute catastrophe in the making. Expecting Trump to implode is crazy. He just went through a primary, and he mopped the floor with everyone. Everyone already knows that he's a monster. What do folks think there is to learn? He's a historically despised fascist who tried to seize a second term by violence on live TV. If that were going to work, it would have worked by now. That isn't a strategy that is going to work without Biden either reinventing himself or stepping aside.
This should be a five-alarm fire. Please don't get mad at me for trying to sound that alarm. Wake UP and figure out what we're going to do about it (suggestion: demand a new candidate).
aw, did the bidenman scare you son?
jfc, did you really link to 538, a polling org, about the veracity of it's polling? ok, allow me to retort:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-predictions-i-got-wrong/
dude. have some self respect. Meanwhile, a wider search reveals it's not nearly as cut and dry as you portray.
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
https://people.com/politics/why-midterm-polls-falsely-predicted-red-wave/
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3731665-did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-again/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-the-media-got-right-and-wrong-covering-the-2022-midterms
https://www.wral.com/story/the-red-wave-that-wasn-t-experts-explain-how-the-polls-got-the-midterm-elections-wrong/20570678/
https://nul.org/news/why-pundits-and-junk-polls-got-midterm-elections-wrong
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/04/03/opinion/why-are-presidential-polls-wrong-biden-trump/
https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope
THIS IS A THEME WITH YOUR GARBAGE:
You're consistently misrepresenting the "OVERWHELMING" evidence and kinda acting like a whiny little bitch who's angry EVERYONE WON'T PANIC RIGHT NOW with you.
Go huff into a paper sack, you're gonna have a fit kid.
Gonna block you now, have a great life. I'm sure no matter how the future turns out, you'll predict the worst so probably be kinda ok with whatever happens lol.
Mojofrododojo isn't going to see this, because he won an argument so hard he had to block me.
But if anyone else is reading this, I just want to state that being a dick to political allies because they're upset by a cold hard reality that you reject is not only a shitty way to build successful political movements, it's just a straight up a shitty way to treat people.
Oh well.
https://www.tiktok.com/@acdph/video/7308926178683915563
This is out of touch with the problem.
The long term problem is that we don't have a political economy that actually represents the public.
But the short term problem is that Trump is currently on track to win, and the people who don't want that to happen are sticking their heads in the sand.
We need to (1) reengage the Democratic base. Biden's victory in key swing states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia in particular -- was built on the backs of grass-roots door knocking campaigns by Bernie supporters. His campaign was absolutely reliant on the support of people who didn't really like HIM, but really wanted to get Trump out of office. Those people will probably still hold their nose and vote for him, but that turnout operation is shattered, and I don't see a way he can match his close victory in 2020 without it.
If progressives find a champion in Jill Stein, it's possible that they start dreaming of something better, and if Biden turns things around, they'll have the drive to rebuild that critical lefty turnout machine.
(2) Biden needs a metaphorical slap in the face. He won last time because Bernie's team wrote half his platform in a reconciliation committee. This time, there was no primary, so Biden has reverted to all his instincts, and they are TERRIBLE. He's trying to win Haley voters as if that's not like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy's football. If Stein gets momentum, maybe it'll knock sense into him.
This is all aside from the fact that voting Green builds party infrastructure and ballot access for a meaningful third party. There are lots of complicated reasons why voting Green has long-term strategic benefits, but I'm not even getting into those. I'm just talking about how we save Biden from himself. Sorry if it sounds like 4D chess, but polls already show Biden losing and he's not taking note, so I think seeing popularity for a left alternative is the only thing I can think of that will rescue this thing.
Until we replace first pass the post with something like ranked choice, voting green does fuck all
This is absolutely a myth.
Green party candidates can run and win many tickets other than President, but it's very, very hard to get ballot access, public funding, or voter awareness. In any state that isn't a swing state, voting Green most likely has more actual consequence than voting for one of the two major parties. This builds infrastructure that lets Greens organize the way parties do in other countries: doing actual outreach between elections instead of just threatening people every time they need votes.
The Green party is also often the only way to actually challenge the duopoly when both parties are taking the same pro-corporate position. What they do in a race is break a cartel dynamic, which forces Democrats to actually adopt popular positions which they can then be pressured to act on.
Vote strategically: if you're in PA, MI, or NC, by all means stick with a Democrat, but in about 40 states, you actually have a lot more voice and potential impact voting Green than you do otherwise.