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Provisional results are in
(results.elections.europa.eu)
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this post was submitted on 09 Jun 2024
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My bets are on EPP+S&D+Greens. No fundamental policy shift, Renew will support the coalition at least in part, maybe even become part of it. ECR and ID really are too diverse to properly gauge policy-wise. Really, business as usual: A centre-centre-centre coalition.
Btw there's a majority calculator