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EVs Could Last Nearly Forever—If Car Companies Let Them
(www.theatlantic.com)
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this post was submitted on 09 Jun 2024
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Electric motors can last a really long time, assuming no defects, they should outlast the battery by a Longshot.
That leaves the battery, and an LFP battery should also last a hell of a long time, probably a decent way into a million km before you have degraded to about 80%.
If you got those key items lasting, then it just depends on how well the rest of the car holds up, but replacing small parts while the motors and battery works is probably always going to be more cost effective.
The problem is the battery is a wildcard still.
We know how long those LFP batteries should last in a car, but they're also pretty are in cars and we don't have that real world data yet.
I also fear that OEMs will still gouge us on replacement batteries 15 - 20 years from now when costs are even lower and replacing the battery shouldn't be so expensive.
There's an old expression: Any idiot can build a bridge that stands, but it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands.
If a car has a warranty of 10 years, it will last 11 years.
Oof.
In the defense of engineers, they are usually trying to optimize around a few more variables than ability to stand. Cost is a big one.
...If it's well engineered.
You don't need to defend the engineers.
The expression is saying that engineers build bridges that are efficient and cost effective.
Although I do believe the full quote ends with "bridge that almost collapses", which would make it more clear.
But battery cells don't just fail after a specific time. Maybe a component in the battery will like a switch or gasket though.
Motors are highly resilient as well.
I'm not as sure about the motors, but I really am optimistic on the LFP batteries.
The battery doesn't have to fail for the car to be useless. One of those circuit boards that holds it all together goes and it's "whoops, we don't make that any more".
Sounds like we might need some new regulations around parts availability & stocking up before subcomponents go obsolete.
At some point it becomes an environmental thing just as much as a consumer protection thing.
So just like a regular car.
Indeed just like a regular car.
If cars lasted forever, they'd all go out of business within 20 years.