There’s a couple of different approaches to deciding what constitutes BOE (that is, the fraction of ice remaining), but my understanding is that without a change in trajectory we’re looking at something happening within our lifetimes, by which I mean the next ten years.

There was a paper in Nature that re-evaluated the timeline to an AMOC change that moved it up significantly. I’m a biologist not a climatologist, but from what I’ve read most recently they’re looking at the 2030-2050 range.

It’s not going to be a Day After Tomorrow helicopters freezing out of the air kind of sudden shift, but it will have potential significant negative consequences for food production and public health.

I used to think that in twenty years people would look back on these days with anger and confusion. I now just think it will be more of the same politically motivated denialism with President Boebert saying the flooding of Washington DC is god’s judgement on the democrats and half the country agreeing with her.