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this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2023
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Okay, before people start beating me up, I'm not arguing for complacency, but this headline is more than a bit click-baity.
This is a small poll, and per the poll's methodology (scroll down, keep scrolling.... nope keep going... ok... there you go - emphasis mine):
Not only did they over sample Republicans, their margin of error is almost 4% within that group.
This feels like the NYT attempting to establish a narrative based on a very small, biased sampling of data. Remember that the mass media wants to amp up the uncertainty levels (which drive engagement and advertising revenue), and with Trump basically blowing out the primary, they'll need another spectacle to ensure that it appears to be a close contest down to the finish line. The timing of the poll release and the headline is also suspect, especially as this poll was taken before the news of the latest indictment, yet presented as if it's a reaction to today's news.
That being said, I think it is an accurate portrayal of sentiment from those who still consider themselves Republicans. I don't believe, given the small sample sizes and admitted bias, that it's an accurate picture of the country.
Again, that's not an argument for political complacency - rather, it's one against media driven narratives relying on biased polling that make you scroll down six pages of tables to find their methodology.
It's also a telephone poll...that guarantees it's mostly people 50 and older because who the fuck under 50 answers phone calls from unknown numbers?
I rarely answer calls from known numbers
I don't even answer calls from me.
It's OK, I don't answer calls from you either.
That's especially good since I haven't been calling you, which means that's a spoofed number
You'll only make your mother cry.
Man, I actually answered a telephone pole a couple weeks ago. I was so excited to get his stupid poll while I was driving, and stuck in traffic. I figured I might as well sacrifice my 5 minutes (they claimed) to help get some more lefty numbers in their poll numbers.
Then it turned out it was a fucking poll for a natural gas company trying to greenwash their image and were looking for support for their anti-environmental ad campaign.
I was so bummed. Plus it took 45 minutes, fuck polls!
Why in God's name did you give them another 40 minutes after finding out they lied?
I mean, I wouldn't encourage any one to relax when it comes to Trump, but based on what's up today, there is extremely low likelihood that Trump wins. People should realize just how unlikely it is for an incumbent to not get re-elected. Trump would have skated to re-election had he just not so catastrophically fucked up COVID and thus the economy. Again, not even be competent at it, just be less incompetent.
Biden probably has this in the bag barring some act of god. He's going into '24 as one of the most legislatively accomplished presidents, great economic numbers including avoiding recession, etc. Then there is the whole "Trump might be in jail by the election" thing, and even if not in jail, he's going to be so mired in legal proceedings it is unlikely he'll be able to effectively campaign. DeSantis is a distant 2nd, and seems to be only widening that gap every time him or his campaign opens his mouth. The rest in this primary are auditioning for roles on Fox or lobbyist positions.
Again, I would not relax because if somehow Trump is elected we probably just sealed the countries fate into a full fascist dictatorship, but it's just not likely.
Seriously.