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this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024
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politics
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Uh, there are several recent polls that have Biden ahead, while Democrats have been over-performing polls by about 9 points in recent elections.
It's become so noticable that US News did an article about it.
Don’t believe anything polls say. They don’t really qualify those polled very well, and they’re piss poor at capturing the actual true demographics of the voting community.
It’s best to always assume your vote is direly needed.
538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Nate Silver is no longer at 538.
There are different people running the models these days.
Wasn't 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.
Vox kinda sucks, to be fair.
Could you expand on that?