91
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2024
91 points (80.5% liked)
politics
19080 readers
2087 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
It's all statistics. It means that if we ran the 2024 election millions of times in his model, Trump would win more than Biden. But we will only get one shot, so the number is kind of useless.
I was watching the Mets game this weekend on ESPN, and they were ahead of the Cubs by a few runs. ESPN has a tracker that estimates "Win Probability" and their model gave the Mets a 75% chance to win. But have you seen the Mets this year? They've blown a bunch of games late. Every Mets fan watching knew that their bullpen wasn't good enough to merit that rating.
The Mets did end up winning that game. (Thanks, Grimace.) But that doesn't change the fact that no matter what math is behind their win prediction model, it just doesn't feel right to apply statistics like that to one-off events.
That's all the media can do nowadays. It's a bunch of journalism graduates twiddling their fingers while cranking out endless "Read the Tea Leaves!" type articles. Everything nowadays is "survey says this", "polls say that", "model says this", "odds predict this or that". It's literally everywhere from sports to politics to the stock market, it requires zero thought or in-depth analysis, and it's both a response to and a cause of the decline in mainstream and investigative journalism. It's team-based tribalism through and through.
I predict people will get sick of that shit. Especially when they start branding it as AI-driven.
Edit: with the exception of that football-predicting octopus. He’s cool.
Oh absolutely, and that AI part is already happening with local news outlets and some national sports outlets.
Mets aren't good enough? ::cries in Yankees:::
Don't worry, little Yankee fan. It's not your fault you ran headfirst into the Grimace Effect. Now come closer -- I need to bottle up some of those tears for comfort when the wheels fall off the wagon after the ASG, as is tradition.
Don't ignore the flawed polling data his model is based on