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submitted 4 months ago by jeffw@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
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[-] NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world 6 points 4 months ago

In most cases, it’s a slam dunk win unless things went really wrong. (say a pandemic)

I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we've only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.

That's a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn't terrible, but isn't great either, and with a terrible sample size.

[-] njm1314@lemmy.world 2 points 4 months ago

67% is massive what are you talking about? When you were gearing up for it I thought you were going to give away lower number and then you said that holy crap. Now I'm even more convinced he should still run.

this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2024
251 points (95.6% liked)

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