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this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024
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politics
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Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the "R" side for quite some time now.
I'm not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.
This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.
Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/
New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/
Here's what it looks mapped out:
Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.
Imagine being downvoted for posting polls lol. I hate to invoke Reddit, but for all the (very legitimate!) criticism people had of a The Donald and other heavily censored and astroturfed conservative communities, internet liberals created the exact same echo chambers for themselves that suddenly burst after the debate. I guess they have no idea for to handle that they've been lied to about Biden and the state of the election, and all they can do is downvote the truth?
People “unskewing” the polls is a tradition as old as polls, I’m sure.
I'm a mod, I've handled worse. :)
And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?
This isn't about their predictions, it's looking at recent polling data they are aggregating.
And polling data is seriously flawed. I suggest people vote as if there are no polls.
It can be flawed, which is why you track multiple polls over time.
Using the same process outlined above, I watched these states go from pro-Biden, to toss-up, to pro-Trump, and now stronger pro-Trump.
It's less about the actual numbers and more about the momentum. Biden's campaign is running out of steam, Trump's is gaining momentum.
Well, I can honestly say that as a cis white male, I will have little to worry about when Biden looses. And if I left it at this, no one would ever hear from me.
But I have LGBTQ in my family, my blood. And many friends that will be hurt by another four years of Trump.
So… this is where we’re at.
You have a shit ton of people in your community- urging people to not vote because “old!” While a rapist/convicted felon is waltzing right through the mess, not even being questioned about how or why he lied in every answer he gave.
These people are fucking lunatics man. This should be a no brainer. Biden’s podium could poll worse than Trump and I’d vote for it.
These people are willing to destroy a nation if it means an old man is not elected. Note how I didn’t say genocide supporter- yeah. It’s a non issue now with them. Did you notice?
Ah, one of those steadfast LGBTQ allies who also hates SJWs. That's a coherent personality, but most of the examples of it are Republicans who discovered the leopards would eat their loved ones faces (or usually that their loved ones were revealed as leopard prey), but then didn't evaluate any of the other social propaganda they had bought into.
Riiight. Cool story. I especially LOVE how you created an entire persona for me having had a brief conversation of no more than a few paragraphs.
Speaks volumes about how seriously you should be taken. Listen up, You have no clue who I am, what I do- and who I care for… and the fact that you found yourself in a situation where you thought making assumptions would be a good idea, doesn’t just show who you are, it proves my point.
Man, you basically confirmed it in your other comment. You're an enlightened centrist worried about SJWs, which in this political environment is basically almost entirely Never Trump Republicans that want Trump's threat to democracy to pass on by but haven't considered how any of their other political beliefs might have lead to Trump gaining power in the first place.
Sure, the right is hurtling headlong into fascism and the left has been dominated by moderates for the last 40 years, but what's equally important is whether someone tells you you should change your language to be more sensitive. You're right in the center, rising above it, everything in perfect balance!
k…
Biden has been consistently polling behind the Democrats who also have a state-wide election. If it's flawed it's in a very specific way that overweights the specific kind of Democratic voter that supports their state candidate and doesn't support Biden. That's not particularly likely.
538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.
Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he's still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.
Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.
Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.
If you believe this is the most important election in our lifetimes and believe the polls and analysis that put Biden in a bad and worsening position, it's kind of the most important story in the country, if not the world. There's a reason it's like a 50% of all political discussions here.
It’s an important story! But The NY Times has beclowned itself by trying to create a narrative instead of just covering it. There were well over 200 articles and 99% were gossip or fanfiction masquerading as news stories. That’s an editorial decision, not a news-based one. They even made a whole graphic counting which Democrats have defected. (It was 6 house members and 0 Senators and governors.)
It kind of reminded me of when they kept writing articles saying the president of MIT still hasn’t resigned even though that was an utterly unimportant story. Just a bunch of articles about nothing happening.
Hmmm… I wonder if it has anything to do with all the non voting SJWs that show up every four years to demand bullshit they don’t even understand.
Also, it’s okay for them to be woefully wrong, as long as others are…. wronger?
"bullshit SJWs"
k lol.
Neat!
Removed, civility.
The mask is slipping.
What mask? The fact that I’m positioned right between willful ignorance on the far left, and willful ignorance on the far right- allows me to call it out as I see it. SJWs are known to speak a lot and say very little.
Your vote is what matters now. If you wanted change, you should have started working on that four years ago. It’s too fucking late now.
Either vote to keep democracy alive, or be part of its demise. We’re too late in the game to kiss asses.
The people complaining about SJWs are conservatives. I'm happy if you're going to be VBNMW in this election, but you're not on our team and have no business lecturing people who actually care about all these "social justice" things you think are annoying because learning new words is hard. "Enlightened centrist" is a political slur for a very good reason.
The people complaining about SJWs are people who see them for what they are.
Keyboard warriors. People who whine about shit all day on the internet- and do nothing about it.
It’s not a political stance to call them out. It’s just observation. I’m sorry this upsets you, but it’s better you hear it from someone….
Fucking lol man. You're a caricature.
This poll came out an hour ago. Maps not up to date yet.
The map is my own creation based on the polling data linked.