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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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I've been thinking a lot about how the assassination attempt will effect Bidens chances at victory. I read one take that I agree with, the basic idea is that it won't effect polling data that much. That's with the belief that there are no real undecided voters in this election. The key issue is voter turnout per party. And the biggest effect is that this will cause Trump supporters to have high turnout rates. Biden will never do well in that enthusiasm gap, which is a major reason why it would have been best to stick to a single term, can't undue that though.
There is a unique opportunity at DNC. Assuming Trump will do nothing to "turn down the tempture" Biden can step down as the nominee, claiming his family convinced him to, fearing an assassination attempt. That will flip the entire narrative. There should be an open primary as well. 1 debate with x number of Dems, don't just nominate Harris, again, democrats need enthusiasm to have a high turnout. That debate will be a huge television event and it will be about the issues, Democrats will win, down ballot even, when they all say tax the rich over and over again.
That's just me writing a script for this shit. But at this point, fuck it, replace Biden with George Clooney. He's just as qualified as Trump was in 2016.
Could you explain how? Flip it around: if a registered Dem took a shot at Biden would that help his turnout? I'm not so sure.
It depends on how it was handled. Trump got an excellent PR photo, and the dems have been tripping over each other in their rush to support him and civility. This is a massive win for Trump in the eyes of his voterbase. In non-Trump voter eyes, it won't make any difference, but it doesn't need to. This election will be won or lost not by policy, but by voter engagement, and Biden has been doing very poorly recently with that regard.
How many Trumpers will even have this at the front of whatever passes for their minds in 4 month's time?
I'll bet you actual money there will be shirts, shoes, hats, and bumper stickers of that moment.
I've already seen that shit getting blasted under any twitter posts mentioning trump by bots. The vultures are fucking quick with it, let me tell you, like less than an hour after that photo came out I started to see that shit appear on this stupid redbubble type t-shirts as a design. I bet that shit's gonna sell like hotcakes.
I'm not sure why that would even matter. Just throw that shit on the massive pile marked "shitty Trump branded merch".
Really fucking helpful discussion there. Just ignoring all of it and lamenting how his merch is shitty...
Yeah that will totally do something.
If you need to help your brain make some dopamine go touch grass, do some origami or masturbate or something.
Cause this wasn't helpful or even coherent as part of the conversation.
You seem like the one who needs a break, Mr Angrypants.
What did your comment contribute exactly?
Quite a few. It's a positive impact to his campaign.
This election cycle isn't going to be won by bringing voters in from across the aisle, or appealing more to centrists. This election is going to be won by whichever candidate can energize voters more within swing states.
Realistically, I expect Biden to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
So on one hand, some Trumpers may be motivated enough to get off the couch because some idiot took a shot at him. On the other hand, Dems should be motived by things like access to abortion and staving off an attempt to institute a christofascist autocracy.
Should doesn't matter. What is matters.
This election is going to be purely vibes-based, nobody is undecided. Whichever candidate can get the highest turnout wins.
Right now, sad to say, Trump is winning that vibes battle.
I don't see any evidence for this. Of course, the media has a shiny new story to obsess about but that's not the same thing.
Biden's polling has been tanking, aligning with the popular protesting against the Palestinian Genocide and the recent poor debate performance, with major calls for him to step down even from within the DNC.
Trump's polling has been rising, his voters are unified, and he has managed to pull an amazing PR victory out of his assassination attempt.
Trump doesn't look better now to Biden voters. Trump looks better to Trump voters than Biden looks to Biden voters, which is what will matter more than appealing to centrists this election.
Ah, polling.
I guess you have more faith in the accuracy of that than I do.
Not the hard numbers, no, but trends? Yes.
https://lemmy.world/post/17619808?scrollToComments=true
We aren't talking about people switching from Biden to Trump. We are talking about people actually showing up to vote on Election Day.
Nobody is undecided between them if voting was mandatory, what is up for flux is which side will show up more.
You mentioned that you put some stock in the polling. I indulged you by posting a link showing no bump for Trump post-shooting. Now you say it's down to turnout which is pretty much a given.
I'm honestly not sure what point you're trying to make here.
By polling, I mean voter turnout, not which way voters would vote if they do vote.
It's down to turnout, yes. America does not have mandatory voting, ergo whichever candidate can unify and energize their base will win. Centrists already know who they are voting for, proved by the link you provided.
Biden is seeing constant controversy among likely democrat voters, meanwhile Trump is the current GOP darling.
I really don't see how the DNC can pull out a win unless they pull out all support from Israel and/or toss Biden and bring on someone younger, with broader appeal and higher energy.
They win by hammering the point that a Trump victory means the end of the US in its current form. No hyperbole.
Republicans are already blaming that rhetoric for the assassination attempt. So democrats are going to tone that kind of messaging way down for fear of inciting more political violence.
Why would the Democrats have to refrain from telling the truth? The assassination attempt wasn't their doing.
They don't have to do anything. But they are.
Doubtful that that will bring out voters. Historically, voters voting for something outperform voters voting against something.
You really don't think that preventing a national ban on abortion will bring out voters? How about a reversal on tackling climate change? Maybe voting to stop a slide into christofascist authoritarianism?
Come on.
Not as much as promising to implement national bans on abortion, slowing climate change action, and implementing more "christian values" would among conservative voters, no.
Democrat voters have to hold their nose and vote for Biden, largely. Some people still genuinely like him, sure, but compared to Trump, who has a unified base and full support, the Democrats are fractured.
👍
Funny how well written they can be, and follow such little logic.
(Not the same person you were in that convo with btw) I've always felt that Biden was going to rely on grassroots pro choice groups to really kick up the voter engagement. That's where the Taylor Swift factor will come in.
Agreed. The election is about what people stand to lose if they stay home, not just about how old and infirm Biden is.
That's a nothing sandwich with a side order of nothing. As far as motivating voters. It doesn't apply to any one person. Any Democratic candidate could be saying these things, whether Biden, Harris, any of the other Democratic candidates from 2020, or a Speak-n-spell with a blue sticker on it. The GOP has, for decades, ran on people before policies. When they didn't, they lost.
And whether we like it or not we don't live in a logical system where policies are all that matter. If we did we could have a direct democracy and have every citizen vote directly on each policy. Instead we have a Republic, so the person making the empty campaign promises matters. Their personality matters. Their energy and likeability matters. It's why Obama won, and Clinton before him. But now, the Democrats either can't see that or don't want to, or they're led by bad actors who want to lose.
I disagree simply because the scale and magnitude of what the majority of people stand to lose this time is like nothing we've ever seen before.
Your mistake is using the usual logic. That flip only works to identify breaks in a logical way of thinking and serves to highlight how something might not make sense in reverse. Except instead of If A then B and if B maybe not A, we have:
If not fascist, vote Biden
vs
Trump.
He is the equation. No if-then statements, no maybes, nothing. Just the equation of Trump.
He is their god-king. If he says drink cyanide, a shocking percentage would do so. Because of the assassination attempt the timeline has shifted. It is no longer a race of one terrible choice and one middle-of-the-road choice, now especially it is about image and the charisma to represent a figure to the people who need to vote. Allow me to lay a short timeline:
Joe announces a second term. This was his chance to tell all of us that if he can't do it he will step down, for the good of all of us. This creates trust in a leader that understands what is important.
Trump confirms he will run. GOP immediately behind him while playing smoke and mirrors.
Fast forward through mostly normal months if you put aside all the court meetings with Trump at the head.
Joe challenges Trump to a debate. ALL OF US expect Trump to get destroyed. Despite his intelligence, old age is showing and Biden fumbles the ball. Honestly not badly in any other year, he just fumbled it next to one of the biggest imbeciles in recent history and because expectations were high, the fall went further.
However, this is a chance for Joe to recover. Apologize for his performance. Go full Dark Brandon. Explode out onto the news and talk shows. Hire Wendy's PR team and have then run his social media accounts. Admit he fucked up and then step up strongly and precisely. This is how you turn these situations around in your favor.
He continues to fumble and honestly? It isn't truly even his fault, until he admits that he is staying in to "do his best". Now the responsibility is 100% on his shoulders for everything, period. Before this he may have had wiggle room. Unfortunately, that is a statement of ownership. It was not popular.
Then Trump gets shot. Since it happened, best case was him not getting hit at all. Second best was the shooter finding success. Worst case scenario, well...see Trump holding a pose, blood running down the side of his face. Before this moment, Biden was unpopular, though still Biden. There remained ways to regain a foothold. Now even I, who supported him staying in, cannot find a reason for him to do so. He's lost the image game. A single bullet shifted the scale.
To win now it's on us to be the leaders. We all need to come out in numbers never before seen. Without our own figurehead, and there are people whose image could easily challenge and outstrip Trump's, we can now only rely on our collective desire to stop this evil. The problem is the people who can beat him don't want the job.
They would be heroes.
I just don't feel they'll step up.
Nobody is going to risk fracturing the party by announcing that they're running against the incumbent. It's really on Biden to declare he's out of the race first. I hope he does so.
The best thing for US Democracy, the people of the US, and no hyperbole the entire world, would be if Biden got hospitalized through natural illness. He'd be forced to step aside, the "Back Biden no matter what" crowd would have to back a new candidate, the "Please any Democrat except Biden" would get a new candidate, and no one looks weak (or at least not any weaker than they do already).
Then when he recovers, after the election, he can be a strong advisor to the new Democratic president.
I kind of agree but if Biden is incapacitated there will be a strong push to give his spot to Harris and I can see her losing to Trump.
It's a shit situation all round and the blame should be on Biden. He should've served his one term and gone down in history as the guy who steadied the ship after Trump but I guess his ego and hubris prevented that.
How do we get to an open primary and how do we get that done as fairly and as quickly as possible?
Everyone's hindsight bias is on fire it seems. Is it possible that, at the time, the decisions made more sense? I dont see how its productive to think of ways to change the past. Learn and move on.
The party is fractured. The only thing the majority agrees on is not Trump. A true and popular figurehead can shore up the doubtful. Biden has a way out now, though from my perspective only one. I am hoping beyond hope there is someone smarter than me on their team with a brilliant counterplay.
Because first past the post voting forces everyone to vote for the democrats. How you all find this democratic is beyond all reason. If two political parties are okay... why not 1?
I'm sorry did you really say you decided Biden couldn't win because Trump got shot? Are you not going to vote for Biden over it too?
Sorta sounds like all we need to do to fix this problem is for you to vote for Biden. Would also help if you didnt make arguments against voting for him too. What's your end goal here anyways?
I believe that on the current course with no changes that the road to victory just got a lot more difficult.
Which I said.
In my post.
That you should read out loud to yourself.
How is it more difficult. Everyone seems to be missing the connecting bits. Here, connect these two ideas:
How does 1 lead to 2.
The saf thing is, Democrats are no longer allowed to call fascists fascist, or say that Trump is dangerous as that is now considered "Violent"
Bro lol this is the comment section for AOC calling out other dems for "resigning to fascism". She literally did that.
I think we are seeing that not all Democrats have thought through their position, and are apparently figuring it out live mid conversation.
That or its troll farms trying to get Biden to lose.
Yeah but that involves the DNC offering representation in exchange for votes. They aren't interested in doing so.
You are to kiss Joe bidens feet and smile. Or else.