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Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2024
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politics
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At the start of the year, I gave 95% odds that Trump would lose the election. So far, the biggest shake up has been the assassination attempt which didn't give him a boost in the polls. I think the polls showing Biden losing are flawed because those showing him doing so more than the margin of error have 18 to 20-somethings voting more for Trump. However, I also believe that the way the polls change can inform us about changes to the political climate. (Systematic sampling bias should still show changes that have a global effect in the intended dataset.)
Furthermore, Biden already won against Trump before Jan 6, which showed every single warning about him was true. Right now, our biggest threat is complicity and voter suppression. Register to vote, encourage other people to register to vote, call everyone online who tells you not to vote for Joe Biden a Russian Bot, and everyone in meat space whatever name will hurt them the most (traitor is a good one, fascist is another.) Register, organize, encourage, show up. Vote early if you can. I have arrangements with people in my area who are able to taxi people to their polling place for free; consider doing the same.