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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
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They're already down ~9% today:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/
So I think you're late to the party for puts. Smart money IMO is on a call for a rebound at this point. Perhaps smarter money is looking through companies that may have been overlooked that would be CrowdStrike customers and putting puts on them. The obvious players are airlines, but there could be a ton of smaller cap stocks that outsource their IT to them, like regional trains and whatnot.
Regardless, I don't gamble w/ options, so I'm staying out. I could probably find a deal, but I have a day job to get to with nearly 100% odds of getting paid.
You're going to love this: https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1e6ms9z/crowdstrike_is_not_worth_83_billion_dollars/?sort=old
Nice. The first comment is basically saying, "they're best in class, so they're worth the premium." And then the general, "you'll probably do better by doing the opposite of /r/wallstreetbets" wisdom.
So yeah, if I wanted to gamble, I'd be buying calls for a week or so out when everyone realizes that the recovery was relatively quick and CrowdStrike is still best in class and retained its customers. I think that's the most likely result here. Switching is expensive for companies like this, and the alternatives aren't nearly as good.
~20% down in the last month
They're about where they were back in early June. If they weather this, I don't see a reason why they wouldn't jump back to their all-time high in late June. This isn't a fundamental problem with the solution, it's a hiccup that, if they can recover quickly, will be just a blip like there was in early June.
I think it'll get hammered a little more today, and if the response looks good over the weekend, we could see a bump next week. It all depends on how they handle this fiasco this weekend.