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Meta Hires Project 2025 Co-Author
(slrpnk.net)
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this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very "vibes" based in the short term.
I think that's a good assessment of the current state of affairs.