262

Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 3 months ago by KevonLooney@lemm.ee to c/politics@lemmy.world

60 comments fedilink hide all child comments

As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

That 1.5-percentage-point lead is within our average's uncertainty interval, which you can think of as a sort of margin of error for our polling averages.

It's a little weird that they say Harris is "tied" with trump, even though she's ahead by 1.5%. That seems like a big deal. Margin of error is important, but it's just factually true that Vice President Harris is up by an average of 1.5%.

I looked back at how 538 treated polls when trump was up by a similar amount:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-after-presidential-debate/story?id=111610497

In 538's national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, while the two candidates were just about tied on June 27, the day of the debate.

So Harris up by 1.5% is actually "tied", but trump up on Biden by 1.4% is "leads" (and explicitly different from "tied"!). No mention of margin of error in that paragraph.

🤔🤔🤔

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[-] Coelacanth@feddit.nu 26 points 3 months ago

National polling averages are nice and all, but what's the situation in the critical swing states? Popular vote should be fairly meaningless unless either side is up but like 25 points.

[-] Irremarkable@fedia.io 18 points 3 months ago

Fairly promising, at least in relation to Biden v Trump numbers

AZ: mostly even GA: mostly even MI: mostly even, Harris with a lead depending on how much you trust Morning Consult's numbers MN: Harris leads NV: mostly even WI: mostly even, slight lead for Harris

If I'm remembering right, most of those had Trump leading prior to Biden dropping out

[-] casmael@lemm.ee 5 points 3 months ago

Yeah I think you’re right about these states polling differently following Biden’s withdrawal. Pretty sure I remember trump being ahead in at least 4 of that set.

[-] nifty@lemmy.world 3 points 3 months ago

Though there’s some concern around rigging the electoral votes https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/

[-] RampantParanoia2365@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago

So if polls do tend to swing right these days, which looks possible, this could all be really good news....

[-] Dnb@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 3 months ago

Wouldn't the majority counting for president be nice

[-] rayyy@lemmy.world 0 points 3 months ago

Polls are almost meaningless.

[-] vanontom@lemmy.world 3 points 3 months ago

There's some value versus knowing nothing. But until October early voting actually begins, not worth obsessing over. To be fair, their forecast was still one of the better ones for that infamous election, dropping around 60-40 Clinton during election day (NYT was still 90-10). And I'm sure many things were learned from it, maybe even over-corrected, based on '20-22. I'll be following Nate's Silver Bulletin this year (he left 538 and took his algorithms).

this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024

262 points (93.4% liked)

politics

19144 readers

1794 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News