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Ukraine said it shot down a $36 million Su-34 bomber jet inside Russia
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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I still don't really see China attacking Taiwan as a particularly likely since it would involve tangling with the US, which may not come to anything but is an unknown factor.
China won't militarily invade Taiwan until they have their own semiconductor foundry that rivals TSMC
Haha.
China is one of the most impatient countries around, driven by the whims of the general secretary. Just look at how badly they rushed into HK, all they had to do was follow the original dates and it would’ve been a smooth transfer, instead they rushed in and caused huge conflicts, in turn dropping the one country two systems bullshit narrative and souring Taiwan off any chance of reunification.
They’re currently pumping ultranationalism hard with their gen z/alpha, and are facing potential future economic issues, a war is a great outlet for angry young people. I could easily see them rushing into armed conflict with Taiwan without having their own foundries. Same as that spectacularly backfired “wolf warrior diplomacy”.
Its about face not economics. You can’t except rationality from human actors.
China has done pretty well expanding economically and mostly staying out of warmongering. I really hope that continues, but switching to a more militaristic approach with their recent military expansion would be bad for us all …. Probably including them
Certainly including them. China has benefited greatly from their trading relationship with the rest of the world and continues to do so, and unlike Russia their foreign policy is much more pragmatic than personal.
The only way they make a play for Taiwan is if they are convinced they can do it without the US becoming materially involved. This would most likely mean winning so quickly that the fighting is already over by the time the US can seriously mobilize, but even that would likely turn into a larger conflict.
China has to maintain the idea that any day now they'll retake Taiwan, for a number of reasons. Mostly because it's a necessary pillar of their internal politics. But in practice the real value they obtain from it would be seriously diminished by the astonishing costs. The biggest practical benefit would be ability to completely control the world's supply of semiconductors (sure was a genius idea to let everyone outsource that to TSMC), but that value will diminish if the US and other countries continue to invest in domestic chop production (add that to the list of actually good things Biden did by the way).
China has been escalating its practice of economic imperialism for year now. They have been fortifying the waters around the islands they claim, but aren't under their control. They have been running into more and more economic issues, and are not recovering from them as well as they had been. Given this, I do not for a second believe China will never get into the expansion game.