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this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Sadly, Armenia looks to be falling into NATO orbit right now. So, I expect things are going to look bleak there going forward.
It seems like the public in Armenia understands what's happening, but they don't have a lot of say in it. The whole Nagorno Karabakh thing was a result of Pashinyan effectively saying that it wasn't part of Armenia at which point Zerbaijan moved in to annex it.
https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2024/04/10/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/
He very likely intentionally wanted to wash hands of it since that would create a pretext to exit CSTO and start aligning towards the west.
My impression is that he's just a western puppet, if you look at his background it fits the profile perfectly.
Is that what Iran wanted, though? And did Iran care? (Nevermind the fact that Russia has long and historic ties and a sort of kinship with Armenians).
To my understanding Iranian-Armenian relations are perfectly fine, and the Iranians never had an issue with that "Christian island within a Shia majority nation-" frankly I don't think anyone did, other than the Azerbaijanis and Turks. FWIW Iran has large Armenian communities as well that live perfectly peacefully- or rather, it has plenty of its own "Christian island(s).."
If anything I'd have expected the Iranians to be more inclined to side with Armenia (usually), if not for the fact that Pashinyan has been dragging the nation (kicking and screaming, resentfully) to the west. The Azeris are major Isntreali allies and more historically western-inclined.
Pashinyan basically gave Nagorno-Karabakh to the Azerbaijanis on a silver platter. I don't think either Russia or Iran had anything to do with it, if anything. And if they had- I'd have expected them (both) to side with Armenia, if not for the fact the current regime is a total western stooge. To the Iranians, Azerbaijan may be Shia- but they also assist in Israel/NATO flanking their country, have nationalistic claims on large parts of Iran, and have considerable poisonous "pan-Turkic/Turanist" sentiments which only serve to destabilize, flank, and carve up Iran even more.
It'll be bang on the edge of the Atlantic, too, once sea levels sink Europe.
I mean didn't they expel all the armenians from there?
Hell, hopefully Turkey can be pulled out of the NATO orbit, too. I hope the same for Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus, but I imagine the "white(ish), Christian" identity's aspirations of joining the west will take some painful lessons (like Georgia is facing now, like Russia has been facing since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, etc) to dispel.
Judging by some of the publications from the Russian government, they aim to grab a share of that market as well