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Explaining the inflation rate
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Hey, I was told that everything that goes up must come down. So where the hell is the deflation?
I know this is a joke but deflation can be scary too. Basically if it becomes a pattern then consumer spending will crater since people know if they wait their money will be with more in the future. Obviously this effect is less on stuff people have to buy to survive but it's still not desired.
Consumers are not going to wait months/years for the real value of their money to increase. They want their gender affirming pickup trucks now.
It hurts the government most because of the debt load it has accumulated, and that is why there is such a strong interest in assuring that deflation never occurs.
True about loans. Inflation benefits all debtors, not just the government. So poorer people who borrow benefit from inflation more than rich people who lend. As others have said, stagnant wages are the real problem.
Regarding deflation, people living in deflation actually do delay purchases. That's why the deflation persists. There is a cycle that happens where delayed purchases reduce business sales, which causes layoffs. That causes people to delay more purchases.
In your truck example, someone would definitely delay that purchase if they lost their job.
People would stop purchasing non essentials, leading to degrowth which is exactly what we need!
But the shrinking economy would happen in an uncontrolled cycle. It would be too sudden. Even your job at the plant nursery would be cut. That's why deflation is bad: it's an uncontrolled brake on the economy.
This is a common misconception.
When you take out a loan, the rate of inflation is added to the rate at which you borrow. Rich people have inflation hedge alternatives, but you don't have much credit alternatives. Because demand is less elastic than supply, this "tax incidence" falls on the poor borrower.
The only time this would help poor people is if the inflation is unexpected and thus not priced in already. But that can cause hyperinflation, which hurts everyone.
It's not a common misconception. If you have a fixed rate loan, say a home loan locked in at 3% or 4% (like many current homeowners), then inflation above normal helps you. When your loan was created, a sub 2% inflation rate was priced in. Anything higher than that means you are winning and your lender is losing.
Your advantage is that you can choose to refinance when rates are low, or keep a good interest rate when rates are high. Also, I don't know what inflation hedges you are talking about that "rich people" have access to. Anyone can buy stocks, real estate, or inflation protected bonds.
Sorry but yes it is quite common.
What gets priced in is the expected rate, not the current rate. So if we believe 2% is temporarily low, then they'll price in an inflation rate above 2%. They have more information than you do.
Not everyone can realistically buy the assets you listed. There are tremendous barriers to entry that are dismissed as financial "literacy".
Inflation isn't a free money hack for the poor that rich people have left in place out of the kindness of their hearts. It's why inequality has gotten so much worse since the Nixon Shock.
Yes, it's the "expected rate" at the time you get the loan. Guess what banks expect when inflation is low? They expect it to stay low. These are fallible people, not emotionless machines.
Banks are run by people who are not going to be around in 30 years when your loan matures. The people who approved all those 3.5% loans in the 2010s do not care that they essentially lose the bank money when inflation is higher. Plus the original bank probably sold the loan to some dumb investors long ago. That's who takes a bath when interest rates rise (due to inflation).
Most people do not have the option to purchase any of the things you mentioned such as stocks or bonds, as they live paycheck to paycheck, or something close to it. The loans are taken as a matter of necessity, so that much is still relevant.
That's not true. Most Americans own some investments. 63% of Middle Class Americans ($40,000 to $99,999) own stocks. 65% of Americans own homes.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N