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Lemmy votes ARE public, should they be anonymous?
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I know that's probably why you do, like I said, people feel really insecure about it. I don't really respect irrational insecurity though. Your comment history could also lead to witch hunts, yet no worries there... If it does need to be handled, it should be done by automatically deleting your old up/downvotes and comments. But no one is asking for that with comments either... They only take in issue because they don't want to be held accountable to their votes, even if the probability is practically zero and extremely exceptional.
If you really don't want to explain why you are downvoting, I really don't think people should be downvoting. I very rarely downvote, and there are plenty of comments I neither upvote or downvote simply because not everything should be rated nor am I capable of doing so. It is toxic.
You already have a system where people with alts and moderation privileges decide what you see and don't see, this will happen regardless with information saturation. What I want to have is putting that in the hands of the users. Whether it will be good or bad will depend on the users, and because it would be complementary, you could still accept the traditional or default method. More choice is not bad, it is the users that make it bad, and in this case, they would make it bad only for themselves. But it would also be easy to work this system into something like https://ground.news , where as with a homogeneous imposition you don't have a choice nor even an idea of what is being censored if you don't go out of your way to find out. If it's completely transparent, you could even look through the eye of another user's moderation settings to see the sort of content they are getting.
Not sure where you are pulling the "new users get filtered out as untrustworthy", the system I'm proposing would do not such thing. This seems more like a projected insecurity without specific examples that can be countered.
Without a karma system, the problem then goes back to which comments show up first and which might not show up at all. That's just a traditional forum thread, where the newest comments do.
there are many times that you can down-vote without a requirement of explaining. Sometimes your point has already been made by another person, other times it's just a really bad take or the person is so dead-set that honestly you couldn't change the persons mind even if you explained it. Sometimes the comment is just hostile to the current situation or the OP, sometimes the comment is just super off-topic. Some situations allow for down-votes without explaining it.
I personally down-vote for off-topic and harassing posts as it helps the system sort what is considered helpful to the discussion. I would refuse to down-vote for harassing and off-topic if this system is in place, as it creates an attack vector for the person to come after me, a situation that would require either blocking them or bugging a mod for, which is something that personally I just don't want to deal with in my life so I would simply just not participate in the vote.
The type of system proposed inherently causes it as a side effect. When you have a system that is crowdsourced from the popular opinion, you create an echo chamber that only shows content from sources that have been deemed as appropriate, as such not only do you lose the arguing side, you also lose content from people who are not established/just starting out as they are not profiled as that side. as for examples? Two examples of sites that use that style system include Stackoverflow, which uses a rep system to decide how much access you can get into, and some of the larger reddit sites which went off the karma system to even allow posting in them. There are also other examples in reddit, but the karma block system was the most predominant (followed by sub rule filters which filtered out based off bias).
I do believe that a karma system is best type of system however I believe that the metric should be hidden from sight. This will allow for helpful comments to rise to the top, but will remove the hard focus "score" ideology that everyone has. In this system you wouldn't know if you were down-voted in the first place, which means you wouldn't be aware of someone maliciously down-voting you, and it would also do what you want where it would force someone if they had a super big issue with what was posted to actually comment on it. That being said, this system can not exist in a federated environment so therefore the next best thing is either anonymous (to all but mods/admins due to moderation and federation control reasons) or just not having the system as a whole.
If those are your examples, then you are misunderstanding my proposition. Some of the reasons you suggest to downvote are not good reasons to me, but that's point, everyone has their own criteria and their own preferences for the comments they would like to be reading over others. By denying them the ability to choose, you are imposing an arbitrary and fallible karma system. Hiding it really doesn't fix it, you are denying the alternative because you feel the absolute worst case will occur. Yet right now it is possible, and does not happen.