A lot of it is also casting a wide net, and relying on people remembering your accuracy more than your inaccuracy.
"I'm getting the feeling that there was someone you were close with who's no longer in your life, and that their departure happened in the fall or winter, or around then."

Everyone has someone die or lose touch, and the given timeframe is nearly the entire year. The person will likely tell you the hit, and then you can build on it by agreeing with the detail they shared.