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this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2024
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Florida is already a swing state and has been for ages. 2 of the last 4 elections it went blue.
It wasn't a freak accident either. There's no sane way to look at the last 70 years of presidential elections in Florida and determine it's been a safe long-term bet for either party in that timeframe. It usually votes for the winner, but when it hasn't, that loser has always (in modern times) been a Republican - so the state is at least much more electorally important to them than it is to Democrats. It's very much always been a leans-Republican swing state.
Every state is a swing state. If more people realized that even most "stronghold states" are held by less than 20% of the vote, I think we'd see some real change in how we talk about elections
Texas is a non voting state, and that asshole AG is trying his best to keep it that way. If tx would vote, there wouldn't be a republican party as we know it.
Democrats have been struggling in Florida for a while now, and most predictions have been assuming it would be going to Trump. That's why all the focus is on Pennsylvania and far less is on Florida.
If it were to go blue again this year, that would radically alter the electoral math, and probably turn a close race into a massive blowout.
The same can be said for Ohio. Both of them used to be swing states, and potentially could be again, but are not currently.