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this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2024
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We've been there basically since the PS4/XBONE made it clear the focus was on common architectures and software toolchains so that the majority of games could be multiplatform by default.
The issue is what it always has been. People are afraid of managing drivers and software and likely have horror stories about Windows and hate the average Linux evangelist with a passion. Whereas consoles "just work"
And price wise? A good gaming PC that will last you a generation or two tends to cost about what a console+refresh SKU does. AND you generally want to wait until a few years after the start of a console generation to buy that GPU (time blurs but I want to say RTX was the big thing when the PS5 launched and now it is upscaling). Which makes it even harder to sell because you are telling people to save up even more AND to wait.
Much like "The year of Linux gaming", it is the kind of thing that some people claim is constantly happening and the rest of us acknowledge is unlikely to ever happen en masse.
the difference is at least you can see it in more real time numbers. Xbox is clearly a dying brand, which leaves Sonys home console sales for now (~60M) and the switch as a handheld device. Devs are already starting to port everything on PC, and 1st party game development rate has gone down a lot. 3rd party devs are also starting to abandon console exclusively/timed exclusively over time (capcom making the next monster hunter simul release on pc instead of a year and a half cadence, square enix backtracking on making final fantasy a timed exclusive due to not enough sales)
Japan is completely flipping its old image of PC being the device for porn addicts of years past and starting to heavily buy into pc too, which is why Valve went to attend Tokyo gameshow to pitch the steamdeck for japanese handheld players(which remain the majority of console purchases in japan)
Devs have been porting (or originating) everything to PC since the PS4/XBONE era. So a decade or so? And first party development is lower across the board (excluding all the stuff Microsoft was doing before they stared culling studios left and right) because first parties are expected to release CoD level games rather than cool and fun platformers (Astrobot aside). NOBODY is doing Last Of Us level games en masse.
But basically you are describing the paradigm that MS have arguably been working toward since the start of the current generation. The idea that it doesn't actually matter what hardware you buy so long as you buy the services/games of one of the platform holders. If you REALLY love Halo? Get an XBOX. If you REALLY love The Last Of Us? Get a Playstation. With the rest being third parties. It... just so happened that Microsoft bought most of the big name third parties and are figuring out how to balance "CoD prints money" with "We want to sell xboxes".
But that still leaves what box you buy. And, in that regard, consoles are still going to appeal to "gamers" more than a desktop ever will. Especially as more and more kids become adults who don't even like laptops because EVERYTHING they do is on a tablet.
As for Japan: The key there is not "Steam". it is "Deck". Japan has ALWAYS loved handhelds. In large part because the cities don't have a lot of space for a giant TV and an entertainment center that can fit however many cubic meters the PS5 Pro is at this point. And a bigass desktop PC is also going to be a major space issue when so many people are used to a laptop while they sit in a chair or whatever. And while I do think the Steam Deck is going to do wonders to increase PC market share in Japan, I still don't see it significantly overtaking consoles for "gamer gaming" as it were and to instead be more slotted in the mobile space and indie games like Stardew Valley that run perfectly fine on ultrabooks.
im not saying consoles have 0 appeal and wont have buyers, its just that their market is in real time, decreasing while on pc has increased, especially post covid. with the advent of streaming, more and more people are shifting over to PC because of it. im not saying consoles are dead as in 0 sales, but the market is forever going to decrease for it, as more people get into pc, and those countries that cant afford to already got into mobile gaming (mobile gaming accounts for more than 50% of the profits of game sales)
I mean, console sales decreased in the 80s and never went back up, right?
The reality is that a lot of people haven't migrated from the previous gen. Partially because of supply chain issues from COVID. Partially because of economic uncertainty.
Stuff goes in waves. Time will tell. But in terms of "core" gaming, consoles still continue to dominate the "casual" market. And I suspect we are more likely to see "core" gaming going away in favor of mobile than for PC to suddenly dominate at the AA/AAA level.
the problem is the covid supply chain ended a while ago and console sales havent drastically picked up since then. the PS5 has been orderable direct from sony for quite a long while now, and shortly after in stores. physical game sales (something console users champion, has gone way down (according to sony, only 30% of the sales are physical now)