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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2024
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If nukes started popping off, there'd be zero reason to send in ground forces until it was all over. Lastly, I'm not convinced Russia's nuclear program is much better off than NATO's. So many interviews with nuke watch officers talking about how old and decrepit our silos are. The DoD supposedly approved a modernization package a few years ago for all of them, but I'm still skeptical how efficient the targeting is on everything and how well they'll avoid missile defense systems.
None of the current ICBM platforms were designed for missile defense. Missile defense simply did not exist at the time.
Sentinel is busting its budget because it's renovating and rebuilding all of the ground segments: all of those decrepit silos and computer systems. It's still money well spent in my opinion.
Missile guidance is not a computationally hard problem, and it hasn't changed much since the 50s. Terminal missile defense is a fantastically hard problem, and wasn't mastered until the last decade or two. And the current generation missile defense capabilities still haven't all been demonstrated in combat.
Having said that, I would generally expect NATO's missiles to work as advertised in a hot war. And I would plan for Russia's missiles to be somewhat less effective than they advertise, but still a credible threat.
It's difficult to counter a MIRV regardless of how old it is.
All valid and fair points.
Regardless, I truly hope we never have to find out either way. The human species is capable of incredible things if we just set aside historical, cultural, and petty differences and worked towards a common goal of lifting everyone up. Wars of aggression are barbaric and unnecessary and I hope one day we all mentally evolve past such tendencies for mass violence. It's a naive pipe dream, but one can always dream.