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New fear unlocked
(sh.itjust.works)
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this post was submitted on 14 Sep 2024
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I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion, even with the internet meme version of the Dunning-Kruger effect. In the meme version, the incompetent think they are most competent, but I don't think it follows that the most competent would think they are least competent.
I would summarize the actual Dunning-Kruger effect as: people tend to think they are a bit above average, and actual skill factors in only slightly. Worth emphasizing that these results are over groups of people, and individuals have extreme variation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
Well, I'm not a psychologist, so I suppose my interpretation might not be correct - the irony mounts.
But from the graphs you shared, it looks to me like the only people who underestimated themselves were the top performers. And from what I know firsthand with imposter syndrome, a competent person underestimates themselves.
I used hyperbole for effect, so I don't think that if you believe you have zero competence in something because you actually have zero competence means that you're secretly good at something. If you know nothing about plumbing, don't try to install a toilet.
But if you're working in the software factory then you don't actually have zero competence, you probably have formal education and some experience. Having that feeling that you might not be good enough is a sign that you're on the right track.
That graph is what the herd behavior looks like. But if you break down, take 2 people who are actually on bottom quartile. While on average they think they're 3rd quartile aka a bit above average, one of them will have impostor syndrome and the other one will think they're the smartest person around. Then for the top 2 smartest people around, one will know it for sure and the other will think of themselves less than the overconfident newbie described above.