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this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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Yeah the golden number seems to be roughly 2025 for engagement.
2 year delay is realistic considering the US is probably securing alternative supply lines during this time.
I wonder if China will halt trade with the US if they really go through with it.
Seems crazy that China wouldn't halt trade after the US directly attacks China. Personally, I don't see how it would be realistic for the US to sufficiently decouple from China in the next three years. Also, now that things are heating up in West Asia, the US might simply not have the ability to even attempt to engage in three major global conflicts at the same time.
I don't think it's impossible but the political economy just doesn't seem to be there afaik. The state would need to shake off the parasites at the pentagon that are charging them 10k for trash cans and bolts for one thing, and I can't really see how. It's not like there's an American Caesar waiting in the wings who can monopolize power to do necessary restructuring of the empire. The whole point of the system the founding fathers created was to prevent that from ever happening. Kamala of all people is the best they've got for this monumental project.
Right, it would take massive restructuring of how the military industry is run. I just can't see how that can happen in the next few years. If anything, we can see how little progress the US managed to make during the past two years trying to supply Ukraine.
The American government may be powerful enough right now to carry out atrocities like we've seen this week, but it simply seems far too divided and feeble domestically to actually carry out such a project which would require so much public investment, especially since it would mean an end to the many gravy trains enjoyed by the donors who decide what does and doesn't happen. If they're struggling just to get a few chip foundries built I really don't think they'll be able to wrap their heads around making a whole-ass new domestic industrial complex and undo 40 years of de-industrialization in, what, 5 years? China will be visiting other dimensions by the time they're done lol
agreed