32
many such cases
🤣
Can we only hope that this doesn't come to pass? Or is there something that we can do to head it off?
I'm making like a banana and shitting out of here.
Only thing we can do is try to deprogram people around us from hating China.
Yeah the golden number seems to be roughly 2025 for engagement.
2 year delay is realistic considering the US is probably securing alternative supply lines during this time.
I wonder if China will halt trade with the US if they really go through with it.
Consider that Russia still trades with the west and even sells them vital materials like titanium and winter gas and we’re 2 years in now to the conflict.
I think it depends entirely on whether the US cuts China off first. China needs US food to enjoy a higher quality of living and the US exports a lot to them. If that continues China has reason not to because they want the food supply to continue. They won’t face famine or mass starvation or anything but quality of life would badly dip in that area without US food exports and if the US does that Europe may follow.
If China is cut off anyways from US and European food exports then they have less reason not to act. Sadly even if they act it likely won’t really destroy the west. It’ll hurt the consumer market and drive prices through the roof for electronics among other things and cause some shortages but it’s likely the US will establish alternative supply lines through Indian middlemen (India it turns out is selling ammo to Italy which is handed directly to Ukraine and they know about this and are fine with it) just as Russia has done.
China also doesn’t have alternative markets for goods. Their economy will be in huge trouble if they lose the US and Europe (and if they lose the US they lose their vassal the EU). Africa becoming large enough to buoy them is still a decade away or more.
So China has no way of shutting out the US while remaining open to the rest of the world. The US by contrast has decades of experience doing sanctions and tracking supply chains and as long as they control SWIFT and have dollar hegemony they can force others to comply to enough of a degree that China is probably hurt a bit worse in a vacuum.
For food, Russia seems like it could replace the US and EU, now or gradually. They are growing a lot in that sector, they can export via trains directly into China in a smaller distance, and they would be interested in more imports of chinese goods and services.
Seems crazy that China wouldn't halt trade after the US directly attacks China. Personally, I don't see how it would be realistic for the US to sufficiently decouple from China in the next three years. Also, now that things are heating up in West Asia, the US might simply not have the ability to even attempt to engage in three major global conflicts at the same time.
You think them not being able to do 3 at once is going to stop them from trying?
oh they will definitely try
I don't think it's impossible but the political economy just doesn't seem to be there afaik. The state would need to shake off the parasites at the pentagon that are charging them 10k for trash cans and bolts for one thing, and I can't really see how. It's not like there's an American Caesar waiting in the wings who can monopolize power to do necessary restructuring of the empire. The whole point of the system the founding fathers created was to prevent that from ever happening. Kamala of all people is the best they've got for this monumental project.
Right, it would take massive restructuring of how the military industry is run. I just can't see how that can happen in the next few years. If anything, we can see how little progress the US managed to make during the past two years trying to supply Ukraine.
The American government may be powerful enough right now to carry out atrocities like we've seen this week, but it simply seems far too divided and feeble domestically to actually carry out such a project which would require so much public investment, especially since it would mean an end to the many gravy trains enjoyed by the donors who decide what does and doesn't happen. If they're struggling just to get a few chip foundries built I really don't think they'll be able to wrap their heads around making a whole-ass new domestic industrial complex and undo 40 years of de-industrialization in, what, 5 years? China will be visiting other dimensions by the time they're done lol
agreed
I imagine that the continued trade that China has with the U.S. is still very important, so I don't see China cutting it off until absolutely necessary.
I feel like the point when the US directly attacks China with their military might constitute a necessity for cutting off trade.
They're planning for a certain date now?
Always has been
I think they're laying out the earliest they can be ready to attack China.
More like the latest, knowing the U.S.'s war mongering attitude.
Her uniform looks like a cruise captain's.
lmao
this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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