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this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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Proving Russia isn't a player in MAD would greatly benefit NATO's Eurasian strategy. But we need to act as if they still are because it's simply unknown what the extent of their nuclear capabilities are.
I think there is good rationale on Putin's side for not using nukes in the Ukrainian war, as there is no way to use them without downstream effects on neighboring countries. Any use of nukes in Ukraine would provoke a decisive response from NATO. That's why NATO has been able to cross every one of Russia's red lines so far: Russia only stands to lose if they follow through.