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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2024
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Hopeful but I'll believe the end of the conflict is near when I see it. I'm not gonna celebrate a victory prematurely. That's what my urologist told me.
I very rarely click on video links. But I watched this one. It's honestly not that earth shattering IMO. Russia has nearly encircled a fairly large area where there may or not be a sizeable chunk of UAF.
I do think that the end of the war is fast approaching, and we'll see some real change this winter. But this isn't it. This is a tactical victory, not a strategic one.
I think the big event is going to be the capture of Pokrovsk because that's going to cut supply lines to the south. This will create an operational disaster for Ukraine. There are also no more fortified positions past Pokrovsk, it's open ground all the way to Dnepr from there on. Once the front is split, then I expect the rate of the collapse is going to increase rapidly.