368
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 25 Sep 2024
368 points (99.2% liked)
politics
19120 readers
2074 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Unfortunately, the only way to remove a Supreme Court Justice is impeachment. :(
So, the Republican controlled House will never impeach, and the filibuster bound Senate will never convict.
In theory, we could flip the House this year, but we would still need +10 seats in the Senate.
Here are the Senate races this year:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/
"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."
AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R
This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.
FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.
Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.
MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R
MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R
MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.
Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.
NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R
OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R
Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.
PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R
TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.
Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.
WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R
WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.
CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.
DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.
HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.
Bob McDermott - R
IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.
MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.
ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.
MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.
MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.
MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.
ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.
NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I
Osborn is getting closer in the polls, but I don't see a steady red state going I.
NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.
NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.
NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.
NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.
RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.
TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.
UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.
VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.
VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.
WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia
WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.
So...
Ind. -> D +1
D -> R +1
Ind. -> R +1
Tossup - OH
Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).
As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.
So if Montana flips. 51 R, 45 D + 4 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.
WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 52 R, 45 D + 3 I = 48.
AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 52 R, 46 D + 2 I = 48.
OH being the tossup, could be 53 R vs. 45 D + 2 I = 47. OTOH - Could be 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48. That would be a hold as that seat is currently D.
However you slice it though, neither party is getting the +10 seat majority needed to break the filibuster. :(
No, according to the US Supreme Court the President in an official act can eject them by many means... for instance put then on a rocket along with Elon Musk to go start their own little fascist colony on Somewhere-far-from-here as an official act to ensure humanity's continued existence.
Since it's their own ruling, surely they'd understand this and comply without objection.
Right, there's no way they would do something super unethical and try to apply their words differently to a sitting president above reproach in comparison to the convicted felon running for office.
They uh, would need to remain capable of speech for that. Surely there's official act way of stopping that.
Worse case scenario NASA probably has closet or ten full of duck tape to stop the screaming, im sure they wouldnt mind if ya used something. Though you may have to pay an engineer or two some cheese to get it.
Well, the only way that doesn’t end in a literal death sentence.
Something Thomas probably should keep in mind….the more fascist he gets, the more people will think “worth it”
Even Machiavelli warned about being too much an asshole.
The filibuster doesn't really enter into it. Article I, Section 3 of the Constitution requires a 2/3 majority to convict:
The only positive fact about Thomas's tenure is that the guy is 76 years old. The actuary tables look worse and worse for him every year.
I want to ask "Hey, Clarence, is it true that you think your vote should only count for 3/5ths of mine?" and "is it true you think the all of the constitutional amendments were mistakes?" until he has a heart attack.
The filibuster makes it unlikely it will even be heard, that was the problem with the first Trump impeachment. They broke the filibuster the 2nd time then failed to convict.
Ouch, so there's no scenario in which Dems keep a majority?
Alas 50+10 (or 60) in the Senate is not good enough. To earn a conviction in the Senate, you need a two thirds majority, or 50+17 (67), https://time.com/6997811/impeaching-supreme-court-justice-judges-history/
It's possible that with a good case, the judges could be convinced to resign prior to getting officially impeached or after impeachment but before conviction. But a major factor in Nixon's resignation was that he didn't have the votes to avoid conviction in the Senate, while both Clinton and Drumpf knew they'd be acquitted.
The only way I see this happening is under something like the 127 DC states plan, https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review
(The above would go like this: 50 Dems + 1 Dem VP vote to abolish the filibuster in the Senate, then a Dem majority House passes a bill to admit each neighborhood of DC as a separate state (127 in all), and then the same 50 Dems + 1 Dem VP pass the same bill. Once admitted, the extra states give the required supermajority to the Dems who can then move to a successful impeachment and conviction.)
Oh! I'm not holding my breath