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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 month ago

That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist

You just lack reading comprehension.

The quote is:

best most recent structural bias measurement

The previous comments said, "the best most recent estimate of structural bias", which was Trump v Biden 2020. Its the best because its not a simulation or modeling. Its two measured values. I've seen simulations and statistical models to estimate things like structural bias, but none of them are as good as a measurement. We should use the measurement.

I get it. You've got an axe to grind. And at this point you might be better off inside a warm fantastic cocoon where Harris is crushing it and is going to win FL and TX. It might be the last light of joy you get to experience.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 month ago

My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful

Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to

[-] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world -4 points 1 month ago

Is the cocoon warm?

this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024

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