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Georgia passes 1 million early voting mark
(www.ajc.com)
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this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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Do we have any idea which direction these votes are going? Are there early voting exit polls? Yes, I know recent trends point to blue early voting, but that's no guarantee.
They don't release exit polling until after polls close on election day
There is not direct data on who they are voting for, only demographic data. For instance, you can see that currently around 55% of early voters in Georgia are women. In some states you can also look at party registration but that doesn't tell you everything (people often don't update it) and a large chunk are not registered, but that can get you a good idea
Thank you, all great points. So overall, what do the demographics suggest in this case?
General consesus seems to be the early vote data looks good for dems overall. Some suggest that there maybe a slight increase in republicans switching from election day voting to early, but otherwise looks pretty good. Honestly would have expected more of that given that republicans theoretically made it a focus of their get out the vote to get people to vote earlier
Analyzing early voting data can be a little tricky because of you can only look at those indirect metrics. I mean even with party registration it doesn't tell you if republicans are choosing not to vote for trump which the republican oversampling polling suggests we might see more of compared to 2020
The dems don’t have this in the bag, though. Wins and losses may be decided by a few thousand votes, so people need to get out and vote!
I really appreciate the indepth response. Thanks much.