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this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024
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It's unlikely they'll attack before the election, if they do. They know every escalation is another vote for Trump, and even Iran doesnt want Trump in power. My guess is they're going to see who wins and what comes out of it before making any decisions.
This analysis ignores the internal motivations for foreign policy.
How so?
Iran has it's own internal politics and factions it needs to appease.
This is true of most countries too.
The US invasion of Iraq had far more to do with internal politics than it did with any actions of Saddam.
The current elected leader of Iran was actually the concillatory to the west candidate, elected when tensions were not quite as high.
Now that tensions are high, he has to prove he's not too weak to his own constituency, as the Persian people come together under what they consider to be an unjust attack.
Again, this is true in general for most countries. Foreign policy is driven far more by domestic politics then most people consider.
Their display of strength was displayed during th Oct 1 attacks. I'm not saying a follow up attack by Iran is unlikely. I'm saying the plitical situation in America currently, and whatever it is after Nov 5th, will be a big factor in what they decide to do.
Their Oct 1 attacks were in response to the assassination of Nasrallah, in combination with a response to the assassination of a visiting diplomat in Tehran from a separate attack from Israel.
Iran agreed not to respond to the assassination because the US promised that if Iran didn't respond, the US would secure a peace deal for Gaza.
The fact that they delivered and the US didn't is well known to the Persian people, even if it isn't here. And, the lack of response was considered internally there as encouraging Israeli aggression.
The whole 'nothing is more important than the US election' is far less accurate than you think it is.
Why not, would you say?
Trump is an even bigger Zionist supporter than Biden, which is pretty impressive considering how much support Biden gives them.
On top of that, he also did a lot of bad things towards Iran when he was president like sabotaging a deal Obama setup meant to ensure Iran has no nukes in favor of less sanctions and better relations. He also assassinated their top general Soleimani.
And he's unhinged so you can't make strategic moves against him. He might just decide to do some over-the-top bullshit.
Iran is an Ally to Russia. Who fills Trump's pockets easier, Israel or Russia.
Iran can be an ally with Russia and not want Trump. Both can be true,.