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this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024
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Not really. China would just buy it all if given the chance and the US companies would be fucked, since TSMC is practically a monopoly within its field at the moment.
It's not as easy, as TSMC needs ASML hardware, which wouldn't sell it to TSMC anymore because they also want to sell to US companies.
I didn't say it would be easy, but anything TSMC currently produces would likely find a new buyer even with no US customers, so in the short run the loser would not be TSMC. In the long run, it's pointless to speculate, since US would probably try to level Taiwan down rather than let China have the semiconductor sector to itself... Let's hope it doesn't come to that, though.
Do you think China could soak enough capacity to get TSMC to turn away from all of its major customers? Isn't most of their industrial design focused on consumer products with automaton, not high end chips? Are there many high end Chinese chip designs?