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this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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East/West Ukraine incoming?
I think a more likely scenario is that Russia will simply absorb the eastern part and then install a compliant regime in the west.
They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
That would alo require installing compliant government. Last few decades proven that Russia can live with neutral or fencesitting neighbours but anything except prorussian cabinet would get couped or taken over fast.
Also possible that Russia would let Poland absorb it and make it their problem.
I highly doubt that Russia would be ok with a NATO nation taking over west ukraine. It would only happen if NATO nations forced it to be so.
I imagine it would depend how much of west Ukraine we're talking about. It would do immense economic damage to Poland and likely create a lot of internal tensions. So, it would be destabilizing in the long run.
giving it to poland is basically giving the US free reign to fill it with military bases tho
That's true, but if it's just territory around Lvov, then it might not make much of a difference strategically. I do agree that Russia would likely prefer to just keep it as an independent demilitarized state instead though.