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Team Trump Is Losing Their Minds Over Stunning Early Voting Numbers
(newrepublic.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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"In Pennsylvania, more than 100,000 new voters have already cast their ballots"
That's huge because new voters aren't counted by pollsters as "likely voters". The prime criteria is often "Did you vote in the last election?" or even "Did you vote in the last 2 elections?"
So you look at the left hand column of polling information from PA:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
22 polls, only 4 based on registered voters, 18 "LV" or "Likely Voters".
That's the key thing to understand when the discussion turns to "why were the polls so wrong??!?!?"
Good job on voters casting those ballots. The votes actually voted matters infinitely more than the polls, even though they're interesting.
Actually, they might be. In this article, a "new voter" is someone who did not vote in 2020 in Pennsylvania.
If they voted elsewhere in 2020 (ie recently moved to PA) then they could be counted as likely voters in polls even though they are "new voters".
Yeah, I could see that angle as well:
https://www.centredaily.com/news/state/pennsylvania/article283101998.html
"The federal agency estimates nearly 263,000 people residing in Pennsylvania in 2022 lived in a different state one year ago."
That being said, when I get polled, they only ask if I'm registered in my current state and if I voted in the last election, not if I voted in this state.
Right, LV polls often don't ask where you voted.
But this article is not about a poll. They are looking publicly available PA voting records. They look like this:
PA isn't going to cross-reference their database with other states. So there is no good way to tell if Jane Doe is a first time voter or just a recent move. Either way, she is a new voter.